Now We Get Some Games
Frustrating weeks like the last one often feel like sitting around waiting for something big to happen. I was 4-1 with a push pretty much immediately, and was feeling good until the wheels fell off and I ended the week 4-6. The personal despair was absent though, as I was also in Houston watching my Jayhawks push their record to 3-0, in a rain storm, with a dying battery on my phone, and party, party, party to follow. So it is what it is, 4-6 dropping my overall record to near boredom at 14-14, had I not been rip-roaring through Texas in a manner not conducive to my age.
In the end, the sample size has not been there enough for any one week to really move the needle on what an overall winning percentage will eventually be, meaning that I’ve been sort of wading in thus far, with little emotion to be found. The reason for this is simple, FBS schools only play one 2nd tier FCS school per season, teams with data that I do not track and subsequently do not bet, and since most of them pop up early on the schedule, I have fewer games for the system to way in on. But now that most of those games have already been played, here comes the sample size, 16 games in this week’s schedule alone, making up over a third of my overall games to date. If it seems like a lot, get used to it, as this is about how the next couple months should go, give or take a few matchups, and I’m fresh out of vacation time to distract me if it goes poorly.
I’m already 1-0 on the week! Now, I would love to be able to produce this blog in a timely enough fashion to get these to you prior to any weeknight plays I might have on the schedule, and some weeks I will, but life is busy and the time available doesn’t always present itself when I would prefer it to. I post them on both Facebook and Twitter though, so make sure to follow one or the other, or both (!), if you’d like to not miss a pick in real time, as opposed to just seeing me claim it as a win the day after like I am right now! Anyway, thank you to Coastal Carolina for the great start to the week, and here is the schedule for my first pivotal dive into sample size land:
Thursday
Coastal Carolina -2 at Georgia State
Saturday
Wake Forest +7.5 at home vs Clemson
Bowling Green +30.5 at Mississippi State
South Florida +14.5 at Louisville
UCLA -21.5 at Colorado
Michigan State +3 at home vs Minnesota
Indiana +16.5 at Cincinnati
Memphis -12.5 at home vs North Texas
East Carolina -16.5 at home vs Navy
Iowa -7.5 at Rutgers
Kentucky -26.5 at home vs Northern Illinois
Arkansas +2 at Texas A&M
Miami (OH) +7.5 at Northwestern
Purdue -20 at home vs Florida Atlantic
Florida State -17.5 at home vs Boston College
Wyoming +21.5 at BYU
The word is that Purdue QB is iffy for tomorrow and the line has dropped to -16.5, too late for me, but take that information as you wish to. The system likes it even more now, but it wouldn’t be the first time that a QB change ruined the party, sometimes almost immediately. It also wouldn’t be the first time that it made no difference at all in the end result. You do you and good luck!
